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  • 展望论文 关于展望论文范文参考资料

    本文关于展望论文范文,可以做为相关论文参考文献,与写作提纲思路参考。

    中国农业展望报告(2018—2027)摘要

    《中国农业展望报告(2018-2027)》以中国粮食、棉花、油料、糖料、蔬菜、水果、肉类、禽蛋、奶制品、水产品、饲料等产品为对象,对2017年市场形势进行了回顾,基于未来10年宏观经济社会发展和农业发展环境条件的合理假设,综合CAMES模型基线预测和有关专家的分析判断,对重要时间节点2018年和2020年及未来10年生产、消费、贸易、价格走势进行了系统展望.

    未来10年中国宏观经济和政策假设.中国经济增长转向高质量发展,年均增速为6.1%;城乡居民收入继续增长,城镇和农村居民人均可支配收入年均增速分别为3.6%和6.6%(2017年为基期,扣除价格因素);人口总量继续增加,年均增长2.73%.,城镇化率稳步提高,2020年、2027年常住人口城镇化率将分别达到61.3%和65.4%;CPI在合理区间小幅波动,涨幅保持在2.0%~3.0%;人民币币值保持基本稳定,人民币兑美元的名义汇率年均值在6.25~6.65区间波动;国际原油价格回升,总体呈温和上涨趋势.从农业自身看,农业政策红利持续释放,乡村振兴战略开创农业发展新格局.

    2017年,中国农业供给侧结构性改革取得新成效.主要农产品产量稳定增长,粮食再获丰收,为历史第二高产年,总产量连续5年超过6.0亿吨,棉油糖产量分别较上年增长3.5%、2.8%和l.7%,肉蛋奶、水产品、果菜茶等市场供应充裕.

    农业生产结构不断调优,减玉米、增大豆、扩饲草、调生猪、提牛奶等成效明显,籽粒玉米累计调减5000万亩(333万公顷),粮改饲面积累计超过1000万亩(67万公顷),生猪养殖进一步向玉米主产区聚集.农产品消费总量继续增加,口粮消费稳中有降,玉米饲用消费和深加工消费增长较快,肉类、奶制品、水产品消费结构不断升级,食用植物油消费增速放缓,蔬菜水果继续小幅增长.农产品贸易量继续增长,全年谷物和谷物粉进口2560万吨,大豆进口量达到9554万吨,食用植物油进口量581万吨,奶制品进口量增加13.5%,蔬菜、水果及制品和水产品继续保持贸易顺差.农产品价格总水平下降,稻谷最低收购价小幅下调,小麦最低收购价保持稳定,玉米新粮上市后收购价稳中有涨,大豆、花生等油料品种出现不同程度下跌,鲜活农产品价格总体稳中略降.

    2018年,农业转向高质量发展将取得新进展.中国农业发展以实施乡村振兴战略为总抓手,继续深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革,农业生产稳健增长,结构持续优化.粮食产能得到进一步巩固和提高,总产量继续稳定在6.0亿吨以上,优质稻米和强筋弱筋小麦供给继续增加,水稻面积预计调减1000万亩(67万公顷)以上,畜牧业生产稳中有增,水产品产量小幅调减.农产品消费保持增长,消费升级加快.口粮消费保持稳定,牛奶、牛羊肉和水产品消费增长较快,马铃薯、玉米加工消费明显增加,绿色化、多样化、品牌化消费需求快速增长.农产品进口继续增加,结构出现分化.谷物、大豆增速放缓,猪肉进口预计下降,食糖、牛羊禽肉、棉花、牛奶进口仍将保持较快增加.农产品价格预计总体平稳,部分品种波动加大.稻谷小麦优质优价、市场购销两旺的特征将更为明显,玉米去库存加快,价格稳中有涨,油料、棉花、食糖下行壓力加大,鲜活农产品总体平稳,猪肉价格稳中略降,牛羊禽肉、水产品、饲料等价格稳中略涨.

    未来10年,农业高质量发展将取得明显成效,农业发展不平衡不充分的问题将得到有效解决.农业综合生产能力保持稳健增长态势,谷物由阶段性供给充裕向保持基本自给格局转变.主要农产品产量继续稳中有升,小麦产量保持稳定,稻谷和玉米产量先降后升,食糖、羊肉产量年均增速保持在2.0%以上,奶制品、牛肉、饲料、水果、猪肉和禽肉产量年均增速保持在1.0%~2.0%,畜产品生产向粮食主产区转移,供给质量和效率显著提高.农产品消费稳步增长,消费升级明显加快.随着居民收入水平提高、营养知识普及和城镇化水平加快,奶制品、牛羊肉、食糖消费快速增长,年均增速超过2.0%,蔬菜、水果、禽肉、大豆、饲料消费年均增速在l.0%~2.0%.方便营养加工食品需求增加,马铃薯、牛肉、猪肉、水果和禽肉加工消费年均增速在4.0%~5.0%.农产品贸易保持活跃,进口品种和来源地更加多元.食糖、奶制品、水产品、羊肉进口量年均增速预计为12.3%、3.3%、1.7%、1.1%,大豆增速放缓至0.6%,食用植物油年均增速下降到1.8%.签署自贸区的伙伴国和“一带一路”沿线国家将成为中国农产品进口的重要来源地,欧盟预计在奶类等畜产品的进口中占据重要席位.农产品价格市场化特征更加明显,总体呈现温和上涨态势.农产品市场价格形成机制不断完善,稻谷、小麦价格展望前期稳中有降,玉米价格波动加大,鲜活品种价格季节性波动仍然明显,展望后期受成本推动和经济增长等因素影响,农产品价格趋涨.

    稻米:产量保持稳定,消费总量增加.未来10年,中国稻米种植面积先减后增,单产持续提高,总产量将保持稳定;口粮消费保持增长,饲料消费和加工消费略增,种子消费和损耗略减,消费总量增加.政策因素将会在相当长时间内影响价格形成机制,稻米价格将保持稳中有涨的态势.受国内外价格总体水平影响,大米进口继续维持一定数量,展望前期稻米“去库存”加速,出口将会继续增加.

    小麦:生产保持稳定,消费稳中有增.未来10年,中国小麦面积和总产量略降后趋稳,预计2027年产量将达到13182万吨,年均增长0.16%.消费稳中有增,2027年将达到13526万吨,年均增长0.9%,其中,口粮消费、饲料消费、工业消费将持续增长,种子消费和损耗量将略有下降.随着中国粮食价格支持政策改革的加快推进,市场将逐渐在小麦价格形成中起决定性作用,预计未来1~3年内小麦市场价格稳中略降,长期将稳中有涨.

    玉米:种植向优势产区集中,面积先减后增,价格走势由弱转强.未来10年,玉米供给侧改革继续深入,综合生产能力不断提升,面积调减之后再稳步增加,产量由降转升,预计2027年面积将稳定在5.3亿亩,产量将恢复到2.38亿吨;受政策和市场环境不断改善利好影响,玉米饲用消费恢复刚性增加,深加工消费保持较快增长;国内外价格交织,玉米进口维持稳定在200万~500万吨;展望前期价格低位徘徊,展望后期玉米市场将迎来上升期.

    展望论文范文结:

    关于展望方面的论文题目、论文提纲、展望未来的正能量句子论文开题报告、文献综述、参考文献的相关大学硕士和本科毕业论文。

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